The Evolution of AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

The agricultural development strategy for the Plan aims to substantially improve productivity
and to bridge the yield gap by the systematic application of better inputs and technology. This
will enhance profitability of the farming, improve competitiveness and ensure the
environmental sustainability of agriculture. The overall objective is to achieve an agriculture
growth rate of four to five per cent per annum during the Plan period in order to support the
overall GDP growth trajectory, ensure food security and reduce rural poverty. This chapter is
divided into two portions, that is, Agriculture and Food Security, and Livestock, Dairy and
Fisheries.
The agriculture sector continues to be an important component of Pakistan’s economy despite
its decreasing share in the GDP. In 2012-13, it contributed 21.4 per cent to the GDP, about 60
per cent to exports and provided productive employment to 44 per cent of the labour force.
More than two-thirds of the rural population depends on agriculture for its livelihood. Hence,
an accelerated growth of agriculture is a prerequisite for the economic and rural developments.
During four decades from 1960 to 2000, the agriculture sector grew at an average rate of about
four per cent annually, higher than the population growth rate of 1.9 per cent. Unfortunately,
the momentum of growth could not be sustained after 2000, and its performance fluctuated
hugely from 2001 to 2010, seeing a decline of 2.2 per cent in 2000-01 which rose to 6.5 per cent
in 2005-06, averaging about 2.6 per cent every year.
In 2007-08, the growth rate fell to 1.8 per cent amidst the global food crisis, which resulted in
widespread food shortages, high prices of staple food items, and large imports of wheat from
2007 to 2009 (4.4 million tonnes). The average growth of agriculture between 2008-09 and
2012-13 was just 2.4 per cent, with the crop sector growing only by 1.3 per cent in this period. If
the declining trend in agriculture growth was not reversed, it could jeopardise food security,
increase malnutrition, cause significant increase in rural unemployment and poverty, leading to
increase in the rural-to-urban migration, and slow agro-based industrial growth.
Situational analysis
The agriculture sector, including livestock, grew at a disappointing rate of about 2.4 per cent
during the last five years. The performance of the crop sector was even worse, averaging just
over one per cent in this period. The rate of growth fluctuated widely in the crop sector ranging
11th Five Year Plan
238 Food security and agricultural development
from 5.2 in 2008-09 to -4.2 in 2009-10. Livestock performed consistently and supported the
overall growth of the sector. The growth in fisheries was negative and other smaller sectors,
such as forestry, also performed below par (Table 1). The low growth rates in agriculture are
attributed to underinvestment, particularly in agricultural research and marketing
infrastructure, absence of an effective strategy for improved seed, water management and
credit disbursement.
Physical
The production of major crops showed a mixed trend during 2008-13.
.Wheat production remained below 25 million tonnes except in 2010-11, when about
25.2 million tonnes of wheat were produced. The country was thus self-sufficient in its
staple diet, and also generated surplus for export.
 Rice production increased initially, but failed to sustain the momentum.
 Cotton production never exceeded 14 million bales, mainly because of pest attacks
caused by the resurgence of the Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV), whitefly, and mealy bug.
Resultantly, the annual cotton production remained below the domestic demand,
necessitating the import of raw cotton to the extent of 1.5 to 2.0 million bales each year
to meet the requirement of the local textile industry.
 The production of sugarcane, after a double dip in the initial two years, was able to
surpass 55 million tonnes.
 Maize, along with potato, has emerged as a crop yielding consistently well.